Monday, February 15, 2010

Year of the Tiger

Few Chinese Horoscope books contain overall prognostications for the year. In my large collection of these books, one of the few that does is the first edition of Theodora Lau's The Handbook of Chinese Horoscopes, published in 1979. Unfortunately, in the later editions of this book, her overall predictions for each year have been removed.

To provide my friends with this interesting information, here is Ms. Lau's overall forecast for the Year of the Tiger, plus her predictions for how individuals will fare this year, given the animal that represents their birth year. (To determine what animal you are, see my table of animals for birth dates.)

One of the few online sites I've found with both overall and individual forecasts is WayangTimes (it doesn't provide exact dates for the Chinese years, though).

The predictions are for a raucous year. Never mind. Let's all enjoy the beauty of life, family and friends! You might enjoy seeing my facebook album of the beautiful tiger paintings by famed artist Zhang Shanzi offering 10 New Year's wishes to you and your family for good luck, prestige, prosperity, happiness, safety, contentment, ease, health, longevity, success, and reunion.


The Year of the Tiger
February 14, 2010 - February 2, 2011

This is definitely an explosive year. It usually begins with a bang and ends with a whimper. A year earmarked for war, disagreement and disasters of all kinds. But it will also be a big, bold year. Nothing will be done on a small, timid scale. Everything, good and bad, can and will be carried to extremes. Fortunes can be made and lost. If you take a chance, gamble for high stakes, but understand that the odds are stacked against you.

People will do drastic and dramatic things on the spur of the moment. It is not surprising that Watergate and the drama of Nixon's resignation culminated in the hotheaded year of the Tiger. Tempers will flare all around and it will be a trying time for diplomacy. Like the Tiger, we will tend to charge without thinking and end up regretting our rashness.

Friendships, joint ventures and deals requiring mutual trust and cooperation made at this time are brittle and will be easily broken. However, the forceful and vigorous Tiger year can also be used to inject new life and vitality into lost causes, sinking ventures and drab or failing industries. It will likewise be a time for massive change, for the introduction of new and bold, especially highly controversial, ideas.

The fiery heat of the Tiger's year will no doubt touch everyone's life. In spite of its negative aspects, we must realize that it could have a cleansing effect. just as intense heat is necessary to extract precious metals from their ores, so the Tiger year can bring out the best in us.

Just one brief word of advice for this unpredictable year. "Hang on to your sense of humor and let things sizzle out!"


How you will fare in the Year of the Tiger

Rat: A moderately fair year. This year is unsafe for speculation and the Rat will be involved in some misunderstanding or be forced to take actions that are against his better judgment. He could feel some loneliness or sadness at the death of some family member or close associate. The Rat may also be required to travel more than usual.

Ox: A difficult time. The Ox will meet opposition from many sources but will be able to conquer or persevere through his hardships. He must be patient and not be disappointed if results are not immediately visible. A time for the Ox person to reassess his position. He must not take unnecessary risks or drastic measures during the reign of the Tiger.

Tiger: A moderately good year. The Tiger is lucky in the sense that others will come to his aid when he needs help most. Still, he should not take risks as things may turn against him. He will suffer no major illness or upheavals but may be forced to spend money or be unable to save.

Rabbit: A year in which the Rabbit must be extra careful and diplomatic, as he has the tendency to get drawn into conflicts. Lawsuits or disputes arising from unreasonable demands made upon him are prevalent at this time and it would be best if he is cautious about money or the signing of important documents. Otherwise, he will get by without too much hardship and could make some gains toward the end of the year.

Dragon: A worrying and taxing time. The Dragon's plans are blocked by others and he finds it difficult to achieve desired results without much argument. He has to choose between bitter camps of opposing views and finds it hard to please his associates. Home is disturbed by sad news or the departure of some member.

Snake: A year of small but numerous irritations. The Snake may be easily drawn into conflicts not of his own making and will find it hard to please those who surround him at home or at work. He must keep his sense of humor and not indulge in senseless acts of revenge. This way he will receive the help he seeks and avoid major upheavals.

Horse: A moderately happy year for the Horse. No health problems but a lot of entertainment and additional expenses foreseen. Advancement in his studies or on the technical side of his profession can be expected. Disputes or broken friendships could result from his losing his temper this year.

Sheep: A year of mixed blessings. The Sheep native can retain power but will have to strive hard to keep in step with the opposition. Family life is calm, but trouble with relatives is predicted. His work area will be busy but he has the opportunity to meet new and beneficial contacts.

Monkey: A very unsteady time for the Monkey. He is very vulnerable to the attacks of his enemies and may be forced to flee, travel, work for others or borrow money at high interest. People tend to take advantage of his weak position. He must remain patient and lie low. A year for him to consolidate his resources and refrain from embarking on new ventures.

Rooster: An eventful year. The Rooster is lucky with money and his business ventures could produce very fruitful results. Some worries at home, but his general plans go according to schedule. Still he should be careful this year as things tend to happen too fast for proper assessment. He must not be overoptimistic.

Dog: A moderately happy year. No serious disputes at home or office. Some romantic squabbles predicted but they will do no permanent damage. The Dog's net results this year will be mixed and he will be confused by conflicting reports. Friends and family will make too many demands on his time.

Boar: A tough and trying year. The Boar will encounter difficulties that he may have to face alone. A difficult time for him to borrow money or get back money due him. He may have many unexpected expenses or be forced to pay fines, legal fees or extra taxes. He must be very careful of trusting his associates at this time and attend to important affairs himself.


Chinese Zodiac / Horoscope Dates

Chinese horoscopes are determined by one's birth date, according to the lunar calendar. Here's a table 12 Chinese zodiacal animals and the birth dates they represent.


ANIMAL  START DATE - END DATE
Rat     01/31/1900 - 02/18/1901
Ox      02/19/1901 - 02/07/1902
Tiger   02/08/1902 - 01/28/1903
Rabbit  01/29/1903 - 02/15/1904
Dragon  02/16/1904 - 02/03/1905
Snake   02/04/1905 - 01/24/1906
Horse   01/25/1906 - 02/12/1907
Sheep   02/13/1907 - 02/01/1908
Monkey  02/02/1908 - 01/21/1909
Rooster 01/22/1909 - 02/09/1910
Dog     02/10/1910 - 01/29/1911
Boar    01/30/1911 - 02/17/1912
Rat     02/18/1912 - 02/05/1913
Ox      02/06/1913 - 01/25/1914
Tiger   01/26/1914 - 02/13/1915
Rabbit  02/14/1915 - 02/02/1916
Dragon  02/03/1916 - 01/22/1917
Snake   01/23/1917 - 02/10/1918
Horse   02/11/1918 - 01/31/1919
Sheep   02/01/1919 - 02/19/1920
Monkey  02/20/1920 - 02/07/1921
Rooster 02/08/1921 - 01/27/1922
Dog     01/28/1922 - 02/15/1923
Boar    02/16/1923 - 02/04/1924
Rat     02/05/1924 - 01/24/1925
Ox      01/25/1925 - 02/12/1926
Tiger   02/13/1926 - 02/01/1927
Rabbit  02/02/1927 - 01/22/1928
Dragon  01/23/1928 - 02/09/1929
Snake   02/10/1929 - 01/29/1930
Horse   01/30/1930 - 02/16/1931
Sheep   02/17/1931 - 02/05/1932
Monkey  02/06/1932 - 01/25/1933
Rooster 01/26/1933 - 02/13/1934
Dog     02/14/1934 - 02/03/1935
Boar    02/04/1935 - 01/23/1936
Rat     01/24/1936 - 02/10/1937
Ox      02/11/1937 - 01/30/1938
Tiger   01/31/1938 - 02/18/1939
Rabbit  02/19/1939 - 02/07/1940
Dragon  02/08/1940 - 01/26/1941
Snake   01/27/1941 - 02/14/1942
Horse   02/15/1942 - 02/04/1943
Sheep   02/05/1943 - 01/24/1944
Monkey  01/25/1944 - 02/12/1945
Rooster 02/13/1945 - 02/01/1946
Dog     02/02/1946 - 01/21/1947
Boar    01/22/1947 - 02/09/1948
Rat     02/10/1948 - 01/28/1949
Ox      01/29/1949 - 02/16/1950
Tiger   02/17/1950 - 02/05/1951
Rabbit  02/06/1951 - 01/26/1952
Dragon  01/27/1952 - 02/13/1953
Snake   02/14/1953 - 02/02/1954
Horse   02/03/1954 - 01/23/1955
Sheep   01/24/1955 - 02/11/1956
Monkey  02/12/1956 - 01/30/1957
Rooster 01/31/1957 - 02/17/1958
Dog     02/18/1958 - 02/07/1959
Boar    02/08/1959 - 01/27/1960
Rat     01/28/1960 - 02/14/1961
Ox      02/15/1961 - 02/04/1962
Tiger   02/05/1962 - 01/24/1963
Rabbit  01/25/1963 - 02/12/1964
Dragon  02/13/1964 - 02/01/1965
Snake   02/02/1965 - 02/20/1966
Horse   02/21/1966 - 02/08/1967
Sheep   02/09/1967 - 01/29/1968
Monkey  01/30/1968 - 02/16/1969
Rooster 02/17/1969 - 02/05/1970
Dog     02/06/1970 - 01/26/1971
Boar    01/27/1971 - 02/15/1972
Rat     02/16/1972 - 02/02/1973
Ox      02/03/1973 - 01/22/1974
Tiger   01/23/1974 - 02/10/1975
Rabbit  02/11/1975 - 01/30/1976
Dragon  01/31/1976 - 02/17/1977
Snake   02/18/1977 - 02/06/1978
Horse   02/07/1978 - 01/27/1979
Sheep   01/28/1979 - 02/15/1980
Monkey  02/16/1980 - 02/04/1981
Rooster 02/05/1981 - 01/24/1982
Dog     01/25/1982 - 02/12/1983
Boar    02/13/1983 - 02/01/1984
Rat     02/02/1984 - 02/19/1985
Ox      02/20/1985 - 02/08/1986
Tiger   02/09/1986 - 01/28/1987
Rabbit  01/29/1987 - 02/16/1988
Dragon  02/17/1988 - 02/05/1989
Snake   02/06/1989 - 01/26/1990
Horse   01/27/1990 - 02/14/1991
Sheep   02/15/1991 - 02/03/1992
Monkey  02/04/1992 - 01/22/1993
Rooster 01/23/1993 - 02/09/1994
Dog     02/10/1994 - 01/30/1995
Boar    01/31/1995 - 02/18/1996
Rat     02/19/1996 - 02/06/1997
Ox      02/07/1997 - 01/27/1998
Tiger   01/28/1998 - 02/15/1999
Rabbit  02/16/1999 - 02/04/2000
Dragon  02/05/2000 - 01/23/2001
Snake   01/24/2001 - 02/11/2002
Horse   02/12/2002 - 01/31/2003
Sheep   02/01/2003 - 01/21/2004
Monkey  01/22/2004 - 02/08/2005
Rooster 02/09/2005 - 01/28/2006
Dog     01/29/2006 - 02/17/2007
Boar    02/18/2007 - 02/06/2008
Rat     02/07/2008 - 01/25/2009
Ox      01/26/2009 - 02/13/2010
Tiger   02/14/2010 - 02/02/2011
Rabbit  02/03/2011 - 01/22/2012
Dragon  01/23/2012 - 02/09/2013
Snake   02/10/2013 - 01/30/2014
Horse   01/31/2014 - 02/18/2015
Sheep   02/19/2015 - 02/07/2016
Monkey  02/08/2016 - 01/27/2017
Rooster 01/28/2017 - 02/15/2018
Dog     02/16/2018 - 02/04/2019

Thursday, January 14, 2010

CERPP Conference Remarks: 2010


What Matters Now: College Access and Success 
in the Age of Obama

In Sync: Linking State Higher Education Imperatives 
to the New Federal Agenda

Roderick G. W. Chu
Chancellor Emeritus, Ohio Board of Regents

January 14, 2010


I delivered the following presentation and remarks in Los Angeles at the USC CERPP Conference on College Access and Success.


1. A Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal

Faced with the greatest recession since the Great Depression, President Obama has offered not just an "audacious goal," as others have referred to it earlier in this conference, but a BHAG – a Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal

– that "by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world." We all welcome the President's recognition of importance of higher education in meeting the challenges of a 21st century world.

The State Higher Education Executive Officers - SHEEOs - have been carrying this message for years and provided important input to President-elect Obama's transition team as they formulated their agenda, and are delighted that they listened.

I'm honored that I was elected by my fellow coordinating and governing state system heads to chair SHEEO during one of my years as Ohio's Chancellor and am especially proud of the outstanding work that SHEEO's president, Paul Lingenfelter, has done in leading the organization's work –

so proud that I'm happy to borrow some of his slides to help inform my remarks today.

If you'd like more information on state higher education policy thoughts, please go to the SHEEO website where you'll find some of Paul's and others' presentations and white papers.

(continued ➛)

2. The Sad Reality

Although higher education is the only investment that government makes that actually pays back (with an annual return of 15-20% on investment), our governments – especially state governments, for that's where bulk of operating assistance to colleges and universities comes from – haven't been making much of those investments.


During the past 25 years, state funding per student in constant dollars – the blue bars on this chart – has risen and fallen, pretty much in line with state economic conditions, but over time has basically been flat and slightly declining. Total state expenditures have increased in constant dollars during this time, since enrollments have risen – the purple line.

Per student tuitions have doubled, though, after adjusting for inflation – the top gray-green bars.

Our elected officials, good at "heat transfer," have pointed their fingers at America's campuses, blamed them for being profligate, and demanded they increase their productivity.

Institutions have responded by saying our elected policy makers simply need to understand the importance of higher education and provide adequate funding.

These arguments have been going back and forth for at least 40 years, but things haven't changed: Funding continues to be inadequate and campuses continue to do what they've always done.

However, the fact is that the U.S. does spend twice what the rest of the developed world does on educating each college student … and our higher education results haven't changed, while the rest of the world has been catching up and surpassing our college attainment rates.


(continued ➛)

3. The Problem

Why? We've all grown up very proud of America's colleges and universities – for generations, regarded the best in the world. Almost all of us here are the proud products of that system – one in


which my friend, Frank Rhodes, now president emeritus of Cornell University, once quipped, provides the "finest hand-crafted education that money can buy," carrying on a 900-year-old tradition of university education.


Looking back, many politicians admit that they should have invested more in higher education when the economy was good and they had the opportunity, but the economy is now bad and they don't have the money.

But the blame doesn't fall solely on shortsighted politicians. The hard reality is that as other sectors have reengineered and reinvented their operations (wringing out costs while still maintaining and improving the quality of their products and services), the education sector hasn't fundamentally changed its teaching model of students learning at the foot of the master.

Colleges and universities have been among the most staunchly change-resistant institutions on earth. Change and innovation are simply not part of the Academy's DNA.


Or as my colleague Steve Portch from the University of Georgia has observed: "We have found it easier to change the course of history … than to change a history course."

I fear another cycle of inaction.

States, faced with a continued jobless recovery won't be providing needed funding for higher education. Worse, next year they'll have to make up for the lack of one-shot federal stimulus money.

Higher education, buoyed by finally having a president "who gets it," will continue to hold steadfast, hoping for more funding.

As a result, the recovery will be slow, not providing enough revenues to governments to make needed investments to better educate more Americans.


This vicious cycle will continue …
but in the 21st century knowledge and innovation economy …
and the harshly polarized politics we see today …
the undereducated will not have the needed critical thinking ability to
stem social as well as economic decline …
and the result will degrade from vicious cycle to death spiral.


I know this is as "downer" of a message – and I like to think of myself as an optimist – but this death spiral scenario raises thoughts of one of the Academy's own: Albert Einstein. In my decades of working with faculty, I have found that academicians love to sit and "admire" a problem, wallowing in a certain learned helplessness.

(continued ➛)

4. A Way Out



So what's the alternative?
 
As a product of the activist campuses of the late 1960s, I say that higher education can take action and answer the call for increased productivity!

This isn't a cry for professors to teach more courses or to blindly exploit technology.

There are other routes to increasing productivity. But we need to get out of our centuries-old mental models of education.

Here are some possibilities – off-ramps from the death spiral.


The first opportunity: Change from a sole focus on access, to embrace completion.

The basic economics of higher education is that costs of higher education vary with enrollment, but payoffs from higher education vary not with credit hours earned, but with completion of academic objectives – typically degrees or certificates.

So colleges and universities can change by embracing the importance of completion, instead of merely access.

A new objective should be to help ensure that the students our campuses admit complete their educational objectives. Let's get out of the old role of being gatekeepers – ensuring "only the very best make it through," and recognize that everyone on campus has an opportunity and responsibility to help students get out, not just in.

The challenge, though, is not becoming K-12-like, cheapening standards or cut scores in order to increase completion rates, for that will do nothing to help the economy.


A second opportunity: Change from an academic model based on Carnegie units, to the holistic development and mastery of needed knowledge, skills, and dispositions.

Tackle the question: "What education is required for our graduates to participate successfully in the 21st century economy and contribute to a free and democratic society?"

We need to change from teaching only the things I'm good at as an educator or institution, to the effective education of the whole person; from a focus on the teaching process, to a commitment to the learning outcome.

The productivity of the participants in and graduates of America's colleges and universities is measured by their contributions to the economy and society – and these contributions are a product of their competencies.

How effectively are our campuses adding value to our students: identifying and helping develop not only what their graduates know and can do, but also what they actually will do.


A third opportunity: Shifting from once-in-a-lifetime education to continuous education – what Jim Duderstadt, President Emeritus of the University of Michigan has called moving from "just-in-case" education (where we open up students' heads and pour all we can into them by the time they're 20-something, "just in case" they need it sometime in the future), to just-in-time, and just-for-you education.

Help define and then provide what it takes to be an effectively educated person so graduates can begin working and then come back for additional education, as they need it.

With the continuingly rapid increase in knowledge, our graduates will need to continue to learn more throughout their lives, not only to get a new job, but indeed, even to keep their current jobs. We will need to invent new ways they can get this general and specialized education where and when they need it.


To achieve some of these opportunities, there will be a fundamental need: To define new concepts of compensation.

Our 900-year-old model of higher education is one in which we measure learning by credit hours accumulated at the foot of the master.

To tackle the question of developing and certifying competencies, we must change old mental and business models of seat time paid for to provide remuneration of educators.

We need to address the challenge set down over a decade ago by the then-president of the National Education Association, Bob Chase, who called for a new unionism in education – to move away from his union's singular focus on job protection and salary increases – a focus shared by their brothers and sisters in the United Autoworkers Union that had nearly killed the U.S. auto industry.

(continued ➛)